The Russian currency continued to fall on Tuesday amid lower oil sales and foreign trade imbalances caused by a decline in foreign currency earnings and payment difficulties.
On Tuesday, levels of 107.77 rubles per dollar and 113.2 rubles per euro were reached. These are the worst levels for the Russian currency in the last 32 months. On the Moscow Exchange, the value of 14.62 rubles per yuan was reached, the worst value for the ruble since March 2022. The Central Bank, taking into account the deals concluded today on the domestic foreign exchange market, set the following official rates: 14.44 rubles per yuan, 105.06 per dollar and 110.49 per euro.
Analysts expect a rollback of the ruble exchange rate. “One can draw analogies with the summer sanctions on imports. Then there was a strengthening of the ruble by an average of 4% for two months. In today’s realities – this could mean a weakening of the ruble to an average of 104.5 rubles per dollar in December-January”, – says Professor of the Higher School of Economics and investor Evgeny Kogan. He does not expect a catastrophic collapse of the ruble. “As new cross-border payments are built in the new year, we may see the ruble return below 100 rubles per dollar again,” says Kogan.
Spartak Sobolev, head of research and investment strategies at Alfa-Forex, told RBC that new sanctions on the banking sector will raise the cost of transaction costs in foreign trade, making access to currency more expensive. “The ruble exchange rate has already been in a steady downtrend since the summer, so the new financial restraints in the moment accelerate this negative process,” he said.
“The new sanctions against the Russian banking system are the most sweeping in recent times. They may further complicate the settlement of foreign trade transactions and reduce incentives to inject foreign currency liquidity into the domestic circuit, leveling the ruble’s advantages,” Reuters quoted a Rosbank analyst as saying.
