A conspiracy of supporters of an immediate freezing of the war has matured in Russia. They are supported by Erdogan.
The conspirators believe that Russia urgently needs a truce before the military and economic problems become critical. Moreover, if it is not achieved by the end of September, it will have to mobilize. And this could destabilize the situation in the country on the eve of the presidential election.
During his visit to Russia, Erdogan will urge Putin to initiate a ceasefire. This is his second such attempt this year (the first was in January). Abramovich and some other Russian oligarchs and officials are behind the Turkish president. They themselves are afraid to come forward with such an initiative, but Putin will not listen to them, while they hope that he may listen to Erdogan.
The conspirators rely on an informal “war freeze party”, which includes most of the oligarchs, heads of the AP and the government’s economic bloc.
They hope for success. Deripaska wrote the other day in his Telegraph:
“Yes, and it seems that peace talks on the Ukrainian conflict may begin as early as the end of September”.
However, Putin does not want to act as the initiator of the truce. He is inadequate, living in his own reality and waiting for the West and Ukraine to beg him on their knees for a truce. The same position is held by Medvedev, who is grief-stricken in his mind, and by Patrushev, who is senile.
The conspirators hope that if Erdogan does manage to persuade Putin to declare a unilateral ceasefire and offensive action, the West will force Ukraine to join the truce.
Of course, this would not be the beginning of a lasting peace. The ceasefire would then last until the presidential elections in March 2024, which the Kremlin wants to hold in a calm and comfortable environment for itself and the population. And then Russia would accumulate forces and resume the offensive. The paranoid Putin is unable to give up his delusional idea of seizing Ukraine.
However, nothing will work out for the conspirators. Putin will not agree to a truce, and even if he did, the West would not pressurize Ukraine anyway, and even if it did, it would not be possible to bend Ukraine anyway.
PS. Sources of information, first of all, are open, much can be read from the news of world mass media. I will not answer questions about other sources.
